It’s spaghetti time.
It’s the time of the summer when the tropics heat up and systems morph from nebulous to named storm. And the eyes of South Floridians focus on those squiggly lines snaking across the globe, on those maps in which South Florida conspicuously juts out.
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Types of forecast models:
1. Statistical: use historical data to extrapolate tracks.
2. Dynamic: Use real-time data.
3, Statistical-dynamic: use both.
4. Trajectory: move a tropical cyclone along based on the prevailing flow obtained from a separate dynamical model.
5. Ensemble or consensus: combine the forecasts from a collection of models.
GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory): its high resolution allows for detail of relatively small-scale features within a storm such as the eye and eyewall.
HWRF(Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast Model). Also employs high resolution.
GFS(NOAA Global Forecast System): In use since the 1992 hurricane season.
NAVGEM (United States Navy Global Environmental Model): This model went into operation this year.
GEM (Canadian Meteorological Center’s Global Environmental Multi-scale Model).
GSM(Japanese Meteorological Agency’s Global Spectral Model).
UKMET(United Kingdom Meteorological Office’s global Unified model).
IFS (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s Integrated Forecast System ECMWF). Developed and maintained by a consortium of 28 European member states.
SHIPS (Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme) A statistical model.Has traditionally been one of the most skillful sources of forecasting a storm’s intensity.
SOURCE: NOAA Hurricane Research Division, National Hurricane Center.